A few notes before we get started with a short newsletter to end the week.

1. Normal Sport 3 is for sale at anormalsport.com/books. Digital, audio and physical book options. All $25 or less. The early feedback from folks has been great. Go pick one up for some holiday reading or listening! Physical books are slated to ship starting next week.

2. This is our last sponsored newsletter from Frame Coffee.

Remember, Frame is giving away multiple free 12-month coffee subscriptions to our readers. To be eligible to win, you have to leave a comment on this tweet and have referred at least three new people to the newsletter since November 1.

We’ll keep track of how many folks you referred so you don’t have to. I’m doubtful that thousands of people will all refer at least three others (though that would be great!) so if you do hit the three-person benchmark, your odds of winning great free coffee for 12 months are going to be pretty good.

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Onto the news.

How Big is Golf?

A report came from the New York Times came out this week that valued the PGA Tour (or whatever you want to call the new organization in which both the current PGA Tour and LIV exist) at $12 billion. Another report, from ESPN, seemed to imply that this was in the ballpark of what’s being talked about.

That’s a lot of money.

But it’s peanuts compared to what other sports leagues are worth.

This is an apples and oranges measurement because you’re dealing with leagues that have independent teams compared to golf’s individual players, but the following comparison is interesting if only for the sake of context.

Dallas Cowboys: $1.1 billion revenue | $9 billion valuation (source)
PGA Tour: $1.9 billion revenue | ~$12 billion valuation (source | source)

I have zero desire to get steep on what makes up the numbers for both of these organizations and would remind everyone (myself included) that your true value is ultimately whatever somebody will pay you for the equity of your business.

However, one thing I have been thinking about quite a bit over the last few weeks is how little we have considered that the Tiger Effect might be breaking non-major professional golf right now.

In any pro sport — or really in any big business — the presumption is that total revenue will be a mostly straight line up and to the right. We presume this for two reasons. The first is because of inflation, and the second is because established companies (especially in monopoly-favorable industries like pro sports) have incredible advantages.

But what if golf is not supposed to be this big?

What if the expectation from everyone (executives and players mostly) that revenue should continue to increase at the pace at which it has been increasing is suffocating the sport from the inside out and creating the worst possible experience for fans who just want to enjoy golf?

LIV obviously complicates this.

It took already stretched numbers and put TNT directly into their core. And now what? Pro golf is trying outpace its already-questionable kinda-post-Tiger pace, and it’s probably not going to fly because … whispers … the business model might be broken.

Here are two questions that may or may not be related, but that I have in my head right now.

1. Who has more “I absolutely have to watch this weekend” fans: The Dallas Cowboys or the Best Regular Season Pro Golf League in the World?

I don’t know the answer, but I know which side I would bet on. Of course, not all fans are created equal as it relates to revenue generation (and thus value), but it’s a pretty interesting thought exercise. It turns out, a lot of eyeballs may have cared more about Tiger than they did about the history of Bay Hill.

The 1995-2010 run for golf was a perfect storm. A once-in-a-century player combined with the pre-cable cutting era made it seem like the wave would last forever. A new era is born for the sport!

Now, when folks can choose between Squid Game, YouTube golf (with more personality and fewer commercials) and [literally any TV show ever made], it’s harder to envision them eschewing those options to pick the Norwegian man who dresses in aqua and purple and talks often about hitting squeeze cuts.

The sickos? Absolutely. Masses of people? Idk.

And yet … we’re trying to continue to force that revenue line up and to the right.

2. Does having teams that reputable companies can buy into in terms of equity (i.e. the F1 model) change the math for golf? It might! And if so, then why has it taken this long? Why did it take Andrew Waterman crowbarring his way into the C-suite to jump into that when it was pitched by the PGL boys years and years ago?

I used to not understand why leaders of companies preached the importance of not growing too fast. I thought it was weird and nonsense and the kind of thing executives said because they felt like that’s what they were supposed to say.

Unrelated to golf, but I now understand why they say that.

Pro golf — mainly the Tour — grew really fast during the Tiger era. Because of that reality — and also because of LIV! — they’re about to take private equity money to try and keep pace. This seems like a good thing. It might turn out to be a good thing.

But the thing about private equity is that it’s not free. It has a cost, and that cost usually doesn’t come at the expense of the folks receiving the private equity but rather the folks who are their customers.

Which is why I’m pretty skeptical of the following position in general.

Private equity rarely concerns itself with depth over width. An infusion of money is definitely good for some people. I don’t think it’s good for everyone.

So while the Tour finds itself at a point where it absolutely has to take the deal it is presented by the PIF and whoever else invests (apparently SSG), it may look back on the Tiger Effect as both a gift and also an eventual downturn.

I’m hopeful this is not the case! You can do a lot of awesome stuff with $4 billion or $6 billion of cash as a for-profit organization. But I do wonder if, even if the Tour hits all the right notes (a big if!) whether it will even matter when it comes to raising the ceiling on how many people are actually into the non-major parts of this sport.

Especially now.

In the absence of a supernova (and sometimes even with a supernova), it’s difficult to get non-sickos to care deeply about the regular season of any individual sport. However, the money being tossed around right now (which you can definitely blame on LIV but also a little bit on the Tour and its players for chasing growth that maybe only Tiger could have provided!) seems to be based on non-sickos caring, either now or at some point in the future.

Maybe it works. As somebody fairly invested in the future of pro golf, I hope it does. If the last 18 months have taught us anything, though, it’s that we should probably adjust our expectations.